Ω Polymarket Paper Harness

Bucket-sum arb + resolution-hold scanner · Paper-only · Generated 2026-08-13 14:05 UTC

PAPER ONLY KILL SWITCH INTACT SELFTEST ALL PASS GET-ONLY

Scans Polymarket prediction markets for two mechanisms, paper PnL only — it cannot place orders:

Mechanism (a) — complete-set / bucket-sum arbitrage: buy every outcome when sum(bestAsk) < 1 − costs; short-set when sum(bestBid) > 1 + costs.

Mechanism (b) — high-certainty resolution holds: buy YES at p ≥ threshold when net-of-fee, risk-haircut annualized return beats the hurdle.

All order-book writes are blocked by the kill_switch module; only read-only GET endpoints are reachable. Results below are from the latest live scan.

Paper Book — cash $715.72 / equity $715.72 / realized PnL $-49.08 / 60 open

#	Side	Question	Outcome	Qty	Entry	Cost
#11	HOLD	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal	Yes	10	$0.13	$1.3
#12	HOLD	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal	No	10	$0.992	$9.92
#13	HOLD	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50	No	10	$0.99	$9.9
#14	HOLD	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25	No	10	$0.983	$9.83
#15	HOLD	Will there be no change in Fed interest ra	Yes	10	$0.49	$4.9
#16	HOLD	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25	Yes	10	$0.48	$4.8
#17	HOLD	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50	No	10	$0.99	$9.9
#19	HOLD	US announces end of Iranian blockade by Au	No	10	$0.45	$4.5
#20	HOLD	US announces end of Iranian blockade by Au	No	10	$0.33	$3.3
#21	HOLD	US announces end of Iranian blockade by De	No	10	$0.064	$0.64
#22	HOLD	US announces end of Iranian blockade by Se	No	10	$0.17	$1.7
#23	HOLD	US announces end of Iranian blockade by Oc	No	10	$0.1	$1.0
#39	HOLD	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French pre	Yes	10	$0.299	$2.99
#40	HOLD	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French p	Yes	10	$0.035	$0.35
#41	HOLD	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French	Yes	10	$0.26	$2.6
#42	HOLD	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French pre	Yes	10	$0.025	$0.25
#43	HOLD	Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French pre	Yes	10	$0.039	$0.39
#44	HOLD	Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French	Yes	10	$0.026	$0.26
#45	HOLD	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French	Yes	10	$0.032	$0.32
#46	HOLD	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 Frenc	Yes	10	$0.14	$1.4
#47	HOLD	Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 Fr	Yes	10	$0.027	$0.27
#48	HOLD	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 i	No	10	$0.995	$9.95
#49	HOLD	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 i	No	10	$0.987	$9.87
#50	HOLD	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 i	No	10	$0.993	$9.93
#51	HOLD	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 i	Yes	10	$0.021	$0.21
#52	HOLD	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 i	Yes	10	$0.049	$0.49
#53	HOLD	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 i	Yes	10	$0.12	$1.2
#54	HOLD	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in	Yes	10	$0.29	$2.9
#55	HOLD	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in	No	10	$0.49	$4.9
#56	HOLD	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in	Yes	10	$0.065	$0.65
#57	HOLD	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in	No	10	$0.995	$9.95
#58	HOLD	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in	Yes	10	$0.16	$1.6
#59	HOLD	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 i	Yes	10	$0.066	$0.66
#60	HOLD	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 i	Yes	10	$0.033	$0.33
#61	HOLD	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in	Yes	10	$0.24	$2.4
#62	HOLD	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in	No	10	$0.988	$9.88
#63	HOLD	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in	Yes	10	$0.45	$4.5
#65	HOLD	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in	No	10	$0.2	$2.0
#77	HOLD	Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIG	Yes	10	$0.039	$0.39
#98	HOLD	US announces end of Iranian blockade by Au	No	10	$0.5	$5.0
#99	HOLD	US announces end of Iranian blockade by Au	No	10	$0.29	$2.9
#100	HOLD	US announces end of Iranian blockade by De	No	10	$0.053	$0.53
#101	HOLD	US announces end of Iranian blockade by Se	No	10	$0.17	$1.7
#102	HOLD	US announces end of Iranian blockade by Oc	No	10	$0.1	$1.0
#108	HOLD	US announces end of Iranian blockade by Au	Yes	10	$0.47	$4.7
#109	HOLD	US announces end of Iranian blockade by Au	Yes	10	$0.52	$5.2
#110	HOLD	US announces end of Iranian blockade by Au	No	10	$0.54	$5.4
#111	HOLD	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	10	$0.133	$1.33
#112	HOLD	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	10	$0.1	$1.0
#113	HOLD	Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	10	$0.031	$0.31
#114	HOLD	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	10	$0.46	$4.6
#132	HOLD	Will the Communist Party of the Russian Fe	No	10	$0.983	$9.83
#146	HOLD	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from Au	No	10	$0.997	$9.97
#147	HOLD	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from Au	Yes	10	$0.12	$1.2
#148	HOLD	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from Au	Yes	10	$0.4	$4.0
#149	HOLD	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from Au	Yes	10	$0.33	$3.3
#150	HOLD	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from Au	Yes	10	$0.125	$1.25
#151	HOLD	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from Au	No	10	$0.971	$9.71
#152	HOLD	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from Au	No	10	$0.996	$9.96
#153	HOLD	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from Au	No	10	$0.998	$9.98

Recent Settlements

#	Side	Question	Exit	PnL
#107	HOLD	US announces end of Iranian blockade by Au	0.0	-4.9
#161	HOLD	Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels	1.0	6.6
#160	HOLD	Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers	1.0	0.3
#159	HOLD	Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays	1.0	5.1
#158	HOLD	Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees	1.0	6.9
#157	HOLD	Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres	1.0	6.8
#155	HOLD	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics	0.0	-1.1
#154	HOLD	Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardin	1.0	0.4

Strategy Params (learned)

Param	Value
denylist_categories	["other"]
hurdle	0.1
min_hold_price	0.1

Recent Tuning Actions

Review	Action
9	param=min_hold_price · from=0.08 · to=0.1 · reason=cheap band: 12 settled, win rate 0.00% < 30% — raise dust floor
8	param=min_hold_price · from=0.06 · to=0.08 · reason=cheap band: 12 settled, win rate 0.00% < 30% — raise dust floor
7	param=min_hold_price · from=0.04 · to=0.06 · reason=cheap band: 11 settled, win rate 0.00% < 30% — raise dust floor
6	param=min_hold_price · from=0.02 · to=0.04 · reason=cheap band: 11 settled, win rate 0.00% < 30% — raise dust floor
5	param=hurdle · from=0.09 · to=0.09999999999999999 · reason=overall: 34 settled, pnl $-54.37 < 0 — raise hurdle

Latest Scan Report

Polymarket Paper Scan — 2026-08-13T14:05:51+00:00

Events: 15 | Candidates: 87 | Qty/leg: 10 | Hurdle: 0.05

Game 3: Odd/Even Total Kills?

event: LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group | slug: lol-gen-hle1-2026-08-13-game3-odd-even-total-kills | end: 2026-08-13T17:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Odd', 'Even'] | gamma: [0.5, 0.5]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.32, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.32)
HOLD Odd @ 0.66: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304
HOLD Even @ 0.66: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304

Game 3: Odd/Even Total Kills?

event: LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | slug: lol-tes-lgd-2026-08-13-game3-odd-even-total-kills | end: 2026-08-13T16:20:00Z
outcomes: ['Odd', 'Even'] | gamma: [0.5, 0.5]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.34, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.34)
HOLD Odd @ 0.67: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304
HOLD Even @ 0.67: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304

Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group Stage

event: Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group Stage | slug: dota2-vsn2-flc-2026-08-13 | end: 2026-08-13T16:05:00Z
outcomes: ['TEAM VISION', 'Team Falcons'] | gamma: [0.535, 0.465]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.01, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.01)
HOLD TEAM VISION @ 0.62: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304
HOLD Team Falcons @ 0.39: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304

LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner

event: LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | slug: lol-tt-blg-2026-08-13-game2 | end: 2026-08-13T19:00:00Z
outcomes: ['ThunderTalk Gaming', 'Bilibili Gaming'] | gamma: [0.225, 0.775]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.02, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.02)
HOLD ThunderTalk Gaming @ 0.21: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304
HOLD Bilibili Gaming @ 0.81: annualized 1.1615712814752836e+162

LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

event: LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | slug: lol-tt-blg-2026-08-13 | end: 2026-08-13T19:00:00Z
outcomes: ['ThunderTalk Gaming', 'Bilibili Gaming'] | gamma: [0.055, 0.945]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.02, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.02)
HOLD ThunderTalk Gaming @ 0.05: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304
HOLD Bilibili Gaming @ 0.97: annualized 2.6597772316919445e+23

Games Total: O/U 2.5

event: LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | slug: lol-tt-blg-2026-08-13-total-games-2pt5 | end: 2026-08-13T19:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Over', 'Under'] | gamma: [0.23, 0.77]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.03, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.02)
HOLD Over @ 0.21: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304
HOLD Under @ 0.82: annualized 4.330521769765334e+152

Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5)

event: LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | slug: lol-tt-blg-2026-08-13-game-handicap-home-1pt5 | end: 2026-08-13T19:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Bilibili Gaming', 'ThunderTalk Gaming'] | gamma: [0.765, 0.235]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.024, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.034)
HOLD Bilibili Gaming @ 0.81: annualized 1.2015206001863103e+162
HOLD ThunderTalk Gaming @ 0.21: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304

Game 1: Odd/Even Total Kills?

event: LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | slug: lol-tt-blg-2026-08-13-game1-odd-even-total-kills | end: 2026-08-13T19:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Odd', 'Even'] | gamma: [0.0055, 0.9945]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.009, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.009)
HOLD Odd @ 0.01: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304
HOLD Even @ 0.999: annualized 4.883225

First Blood in Game 2?

event: LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | slug: lol-tt-blg-2026-08-13-game2-first-blood | end: 2026-08-13T19:00:00Z
outcomes: ['ThunderTalk Gaming', 'Bilibili Gaming'] | gamma: [0.41, 0.59]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.93, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.93)
HOLD ThunderTalk Gaming @ 0.96: annualized 2.5964293593073586e+31
HOLD Bilibili Gaming @ 0.97: annualized 2.7518402224394514e+23

Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?

event: LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | slug: lol-tt-blg-2026-08-13-game2-kill-over-33pt5 | end: 2026-08-13T19:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Over', 'Under'] | gamma: [0.605, 0.395]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.31, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.31)
HOLD Over @ 0.75: annualized 2.6841644489160357e+221
HOLD Under @ 0.56: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304

Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?

event: LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | slug: lol-tt-blg-2026-08-13-game2-kill-over-30pt5 | end: 2026-08-13T19:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Over', 'Under'] | gamma: [0.75, 0.25]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.37, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.37)
HOLD Over @ 0.94: annualized 4.189139417520472e+47
HOLD Under @ 0.43: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304

Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2?

event: LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | slug: lol-tt-blg-2026-08-13-game2-kill-over-36pt5 | end: 2026-08-13T19:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Over', 'Under'] | gamma: [0.605, 0.395]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.9, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.9)
HOLD Over @ 0.95: annualized 3.0267261760910097e+39
HOLD Under @ 0.95: annualized 3.0267261760910097e+39

Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Group Stage

event: Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Group Stage | slug: dota2-lgd-tr7-2026-08-13 | end: 2026-08-13T15:15:00Z
outcomes: ['LGD Gaming', 'Team Resilience'] | gamma: [0.765, 0.235]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.01, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.01)
HOLD LGD Gaming @ 0.93: annualized 2.138873030364346e+232
HOLD Team Resilience @ 0.08: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

event: Fed Decision in September? | slug: will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-863 | end: 2026-09-16T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0055, 0.9945]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.006: annualized 1.8446242962145532e+24
HOLD No @ 0.995: annualized 0.056224

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

event: Fed Decision in September? | slug: will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-586 | end: 2026-09-16T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0115, 0.9885]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.012: annualized 9.497379651556786e+20
HOLD No @ 0.989: annualized 0.128292

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

event: Fed Decision in September? | slug: will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615 | end: 2026-09-16T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.715, 0.285]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.01, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.01)
HOLD Yes @ 0.72: annualized 35.067604
HOLD No @ 0.29: annualized 739930.217594

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

event: Fed Decision in September? | slug: will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-649 | end: 2026-09-16T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.285, 0.715]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.01, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.01)
HOLD Yes @ 0.29: annualized 739932.053417
HOLD No @ 0.72: annualized 35.067628

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

event: Fed Decision in September? | slug: will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-664 | end: 2026-09-16T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0045, 0.9955]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.005: annualized 1.3516601323881058e+25

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.2305, 0.7695]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.231: annualized 0.92471
HOLD No @ 0.77: annualized 0.123836

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0925, 0.9075]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.093: annualized 1.890624

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.1255, 0.8745]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.004, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.004)
HOLD Yes @ 0.129: annualized 1.497273
HOLD No @ 0.875: annualized 0.061458

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-pete-buttigieg-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0245, 0.9755]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.025: annualized 4.200621

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-josh-shapiro-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0265, 0.9735]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.027: annualized 4.024729

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-marco-rubio-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.1235, 0.8765]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.124: annualized 1.541794
HOLD No @ 0.877: annualized 0.060376

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-wes-moore-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0075, 0.9925]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.008: annualized 7.65542

Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-gretchen-whitmer-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.004, 0.996]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.002, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.002)
HOLD Yes @ 0.005: annualized 9.679354

Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-andy-beshear-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0125, 0.9875]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.013: annualized 5.966608

Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-glenn-youngkin-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0065, 0.9935]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.007: annualized 8.187871

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-kamala-harris-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0455, 0.9545]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.046: annualized 2.959728

Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-stephen-smith-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0025, 0.9975]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.003: annualized 12.419248

Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-jb-pritzker-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0035, 0.9965]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.004: annualized 10.799704

Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-tulsi-gabbard-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0025, 0.9975]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.003: annualized 12.419249

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-donald-trump-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0165, 0.9835]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.017: annualized 5.179242

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-donald-trump-jr-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0095, 0.9905]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.01: annualized 6.833617

Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-nikki-haley-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0055, 0.9945]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.006: annualized 8.8434

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-ron-desantis-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0155, 0.9845]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.016: annualized 5.349011

Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-tim-walz-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0015, 0.9985]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.002: annualized 15.086237

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-vivek-ramaswamy-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0025, 0.9975]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.003: annualized 12.41925

Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-greg-abbott-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0085, 0.9915]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.009: annualized 7.21144

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-elon-musk-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0065, 0.9935]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.007: annualized 8.187873

Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-lebron-james-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0015, 0.9985]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.002: annualized 15.086238

Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-dwayne-the-rock-johnson-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0165, 0.9835]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.017: annualized 5.179243

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-tucker-carlson-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0215, 0.9785]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.022: annualized 4.506496

Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-kim-kardashian-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0025, 0.9975]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.003: annualized 12.419252

Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-ivanka-trump-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0045, 0.9955]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.005: annualized 9.679358

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-zohran-mamdani-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0025, 0.9975]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.003: annualized 12.419252

Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-michelle-obama-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0065, 0.9935]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.007: annualized 8.187874

Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-jamie-dimon-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0065, 0.9935]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.007: annualized 8.187874

Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-ro-khanna-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0105, 0.9895]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.011: annualized 6.506836

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-thomas-massie-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0155, 0.9845]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.016: annualized 5.349013

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-jon-ossoff-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0935, 0.9065]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.094: annualized 1.876837

Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-james-talarico-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0055, 0.9945]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.006: annualized 8.843403

Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-eric-trump-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0025, 0.9975]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.003: annualized 12.419254

Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-pete-hegseth-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0025, 0.9975]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.003: annualized 12.419255

Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-jalen-brunson-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0015, 0.9985]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.002: annualized 15.086243

Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-abigail-spanberger-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0015, 0.9985]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.002: annualized 15.086243

Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-hakeem-jeffries-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0015, 0.9985]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.002: annualized 15.086244

Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-elissa-slotkin-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0015, 0.9985]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.002: annualized 15.086244

Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-adam-schiff-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0015, 0.9985]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.002: annualized 15.086244

Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-josh-stein-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0015, 0.9985]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.002: annualized 15.086245

Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-alex-padilla-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0015, 0.9985]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.002: annualized 15.086245

Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-candace-owens-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0015, 0.9985]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.002: annualized 15.086245

Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-tim-scott-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0015, 0.9985]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.002: annualized 15.086246

Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-mike-johnson-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0015, 0.9985]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.002: annualized 15.086246

Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-doug-burgum-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0015, 0.9985]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.002: annualized 15.086246

Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-tom-cotton-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0015, 0.9985]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.002: annualized 15.086247

Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-john-n-kennedy-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0015, 0.9985]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.002: annualized 15.086247

Will Rick Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-rick-scott-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0015, 0.9985]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.002: annualized 15.086247

Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-person-ad-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0055, 0.9945]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.006: annualized 8.843406

Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

event: Presidential Election Winner 2028 | slug: will-person-ae-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | end: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0015, 0.9985]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.002: annualized 15.086248

Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5

event: Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A | slug: cs2-lg6-ts7-2026-08-13-game3-round-total-21pt5 | end: 2026-08-13T17:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Over', 'Under'] | gamma: [0.5, 0.5]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.02, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.02)
HOLD Over @ 0.51: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304
HOLD Under @ 0.51: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

event: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? | slug: us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-15-2026-20260713152715083-347-987-697-628-574-676 | end: 2026-08-15T23:59:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.038, 0.962]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.038: annualized 7.046369405712476e+214
HOLD No @ 0.963: annualized 297.734603

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

event: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? | slug: us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-31-2026-20260713152715084-642-513-584-641-939-632-729 | end: 2026-08-31T23:59:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.315, 0.685]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.01, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.01)
HOLD Yes @ 0.33: annualized 3460941504.95435
HOLD No @ 0.68: annualized 2076.698789

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

event: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? | slug: us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-december-31-2026-20260727171803489-375-949-645-919-269-157 | end: 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.844, 0.156]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.003, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.003)
HOLD Yes @ 0.844: annualized 0.553446
HOLD No @ 0.159: annualized 117.853495

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

event: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? | slug: us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-september-30-2026-20260727171615364-722-649-646-561-213-644 | end: 2026-09-30T23:59:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.615, 0.385]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.01, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.01)
HOLD Yes @ 0.62: annualized 35.644369
HOLD No @ 0.39: annualized 1204.448128

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

event: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? | slug: us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-31-2026-20260727171711632-895-372-622-413-171-454 | end: 2026-10-31T23:59:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.725, 0.275]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.01, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.01)
HOLD Yes @ 0.73: annualized 3.242945
HOLD No @ 0.28: annualized 345.400941

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?

event: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? | slug: us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-13-2026 | end: 2026-08-13T23:59:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0055, 0.9945]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.003, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.003)
HOLD Yes @ 0.007: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304
HOLD No @ 0.996: annualized 33.709016

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?

event: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? | slug: us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-14-2026 | end: 2026-08-14T23:59:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0165, 0.9835]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.0035, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.0035)
HOLD Yes @ 0.018: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304
HOLD No @ 0.985: annualized 48.546545

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?

event: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? | slug: us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-22-2026 | end: 2026-08-22T23:59:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.205, 0.795]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.01, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.01)
HOLD Yes @ 0.21: annualized 1.867101664352535e+26
HOLD No @ 0.8: annualized 5685.197784

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

event: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...? | slug: strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320 | end: 2026-08-31T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0245, 0.9755]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.025: annualized 3.7414040783748585e+33
HOLD No @ 0.976: annualized 0.66315

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?

event: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...? | slug: strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-15-20260727171036148 | end: 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z
outcomes: ['Yes', 'No'] | gamma: [0.0015, 0.9985]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.001, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.001)
HOLD Yes @ 0.002: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304
HOLD No @ 0.999: annualized 0.294652

Counter-Strike: BIG vs G2 - Map 2 Winner

event: Counter-Strike: BIG vs G2 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A | slug: cs2-big5-g2-2026-08-13-game2 | end: 2026-08-13T19:20:00Z
outcomes: ['BIG', 'G2'] | gamma: [0.335, 0.665]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.01, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.01)
HOLD BIG @ 0.35: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304
HOLD G2 @ 0.66: annualized 3.667742671687255e+301

Counter-Strike: BIG vs G2 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A

event: Counter-Strike: BIG vs G2 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A | slug: cs2-big5-g2-2026-08-13 | end: 2026-08-13T19:20:00Z
outcomes: ['BIG', 'G2'] | gamma: [0.155, 0.845]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.01, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.01)
HOLD BIG @ 0.16: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304
HOLD G2 @ 0.85: annualized 8.723482544825087e+117

Games Total: O/U 2.5

event: Counter-Strike: BIG vs G2 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A | slug: cs2-big5-g2-2026-08-13-total-games-2pt5 | end: 2026-08-13T19:20:00Z
outcomes: ['Over', 'Under'] | gamma: [0.35, 0.65]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.04, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.04)
HOLD Over @ 0.35: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304
HOLD Under @ 0.69: annualized 2.0589605043417238e+269

Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5)

event: Counter-Strike: BIG vs G2 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A | slug: cs2-big5-g2-2026-08-13-map-handicap-home-1pt5 | end: 2026-08-13T19:20:00Z
outcomes: ['G2', 'BIG'] | gamma: [0.64, 0.36]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.03, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.03)
HOLD G2 @ 0.69: annualized 2.0950799459626182e+269
HOLD BIG @ 0.34: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304

Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs BIG (+3.5)

event: Counter-Strike: BIG vs G2 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A | slug: cs2-big5-g2-2026-08-13-game2-round-handicap-g2-3pt5 | end: 2026-08-13T19:20:00Z
outcomes: ['G2', 'BIG'] | gamma: [0.455, 0.545]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.47, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.47)
HOLD G2 @ 0.5: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304
HOLD BIG @ 0.97: annualized 1.2749626171493982e+22

Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5

event: Counter-Strike: BIG vs G2 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A | slug: cs2-big5-g2-2026-08-13-game2-round-total-21pt5 | end: 2026-08-13T19:20:00Z
outcomes: ['Over', 'Under'] | gamma: [0.5, 0.5]
bucket buy: no edge (gross -0.12, fees 0.0)
bucket short executable: False (net -0.12)
HOLD Over @ 0.51: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304
HOLD Under @ 0.61: annualized 1.0142320547350045e+304

Ω Sibylle · Hermes Agent · polymarket-paper-harness skill · data is decision-support, not financial advice