🔻 Pre-Market Gaps (Watchlist)

🚨 MRVL −11.2% ($256) · ARM −10.6% ($310) · RIVN −7.9% ($15.51) · AMD −6.6% ($458)
MU −5.5% ($897) · INTC −5.5% ($104) · TSLA −4.7% ($390) · AAPL −3.7% ($290)
🟢 WMT +0.5% ($119.38) — only green on the board

Today's Verdict

⏸️ WAIT FOR CPI

No Pre-CPI Call Buys · Re-assess After 8:30 AM ET

Reason: May CPI expected at 4.2% annual — the highest inflation print since 2023. Combined with US-Iran military strikes and a semiconductor sector in freefall (MRVL −11.2%, ARM −10.6%), buying directional calls before the data is gambling, not trading.

If CPI cools (below 4.0%): Relief rally likely. INTC $110c Jun20 and SOFI $17c Jun20 become actionable. Semis could snap back hard.
If CPI runs hot (above 4.3%): Sell-off accelerates. Stay in cash. Do not buy calls into a falling knife.

⚠️ RIVN DOWNGRADE: Yesterday's #1 pick (82/A-, RIVN $18c Jun20) — R2 launch happened. Reviews are mixed (8/10 CarGurus but pricing backlash). Stock −7.9% pre-market. Catalyst consumed. Downgrade to SKIP.

RIVN $18c Jun20: BUY → SKIP (82/A- → 45/D)

What changed: The R2 launch happened yesterday (June 9). Demo drives began at Rivian Spaces. However, reviews are mixed — CarGurus rates it 8/10 but there's significant backlash over pricing ($52,250 starting vs. promised $45,000 entry model). Stock is −7.9% pre-market to $15.51.

This is a textbook "buy the rumor, sell the news" event. RIVN surged +44% in 9 days into the launch. Now the catalyst is consumed and the market is voting with its feet.

For anyone who entered yesterday's RIVN $18c recommendation: If the position is still open, the R2 catalyst thesis has played out. The −7.9% pre-market drop is erasing those gains. Consider closing if the position is still profitable. If underwater, the question is whether CPI relief can spark a recovery — but that's hope, not strategy. HONEST CALL: The trade thesis is broken. Cut losses or take whatever profit remains.

#1 INTC — Google Deal Pullback (Post-CPI Conditional)

Setup: Intel surged +25% in 2 days on Google's 3M AI chip foundry order + NVIDIA foundry buzz. Now giving back ~5.5% to $105.45. The Google deal is a real, concrete catalyst — it transforms Intel's foundry narrative from "restructuring story" to "AI supply chain winner."

Trade (only if CPI comes in cool): INTC $110c Jun20. Stock at $105.45, strike 4.3% OTM. Breakeven ~$112.50 (stock needs +6.7%). Max loss: premium (~$250-300 — OVER the $150 budget, hence the SKIP). Problem: Post-Google-news IV is elevated — even with the pullback, premiums haven't compressed enough to fit $150. This is the #1 post-CPI play IF premiums come in after the macro event passes.

Risk: CPI hot print sends semis lower again. INTC could retest $95-100. Google deal is real but foundry revenue is 2-3 years out — the market may not sustain the +25% move. Also: INTC was at $18.97 52-week low — this is a deeply challenged company having a good week, not a turnaround confirmed.

#2 SOFI — Oversold Fintech Bounce (CPI Relief Play)

Setup: SoFi at $15.78, near the low end of its $13.96-32.73 52-week range. No company-specific bad news — just getting swept up in the risk-off/CPI fear trade. Fintech is high-beta and gets crushed in sell-offs, but snaps back hard in relief rallies.

Trade (post-CPI, if cool): SOFI $17c Jun20. Stock $15.78, strike 7.7% OTM. Est. premium ~$0.45 ($45/contract — fits $150 budget). Breakeven $17.45. Max loss: $45. If SOFI recovers to $18-19 (prior range), $17c could be worth $1.00-2.00 (2.2-4.4x return).

Risk: No catalyst — this is purely a macro relief bounce play. If CPI is hot, SOFI could break below $15 and the $17c goes to zero. Fintech sector can stay oversold for months. Only trade this if CPI data gives a clear "risk-on" signal.

#3 CHWY — Post-Earnings Drift (No Urgency)

Setup: Chewy reported Q1 FY2027 results BMO today: profit of $94.8M ($0.23/share). Stock is +1.4% pre-market to $20.68. Post-earnings IV crush means options are now cheap. But with no forward catalyst, there's no urgency to buy calls.

Trade: CHWY $22c Jun20. Stock $20.68, strike 6.4% OTM. Est. premium ~$0.40 ($40/contract). Breakeven $22.40. Max loss: $40. If CHWY drifts higher on earnings momentum and analyst upgrades, $22c could gain value slowly.

Risk: Post-earnings drift plays are slow. CHWY near 52-week lows — the trend is not your friend. Without a catalyst, theta decay eats these premiums. Only worth considering if you want a cheap lottery ticket with no time pressure. Otherwise, skip.