⚡ Hermes Morning Brief

Thursday September 10, 2026

Pre-Market Edition · Options Analyst (Omega Profile) · Data: TIB3 / Tradier direct / pre-market scanner

🩺 Scanner health: TIB3 ✅ healthy (16-ticker watchlist, scheduler running). Argus options-flow scan ⚠️ absent (no file generated — "🔥 Highest Options Volume" section skipped). Tradier direct API ✅ live. Pre-market gap scanner ✅ (fresh 07:30 ET).

📊 Market Snapshot

SPY

$762.40

— 0.0%

QQQ

$716.31

— 0.0%

NVDA

$223.67

— 0.0%

META

$661.74

▲ +1.2%

Mega-cap tech leads — META surging on its Muse AI agent launch (rose ~6% yesterday, still drifting higher). Indexes sit near highs but flat pre-market. Tonight is the real event: three large-cap earnings after the close — ORCL (±10–13% move), ADBE (±8.1%), RH (±10.3%). All three print AMC; none fit the $150 long-call budget (see Earnings Radar + scoreboard). Macy's reported BMO this morning (muted reaction).

🔭 Earnings Radar — Today & Next

#	Ticker	Price	Report	Call	Exp. Move
1	ORCL	$161.63	Today AMC	AMC	±10–13%
2	ADBE	$254.86	Today AMC	AMC	±8.1%
3	RH	$139.37	Today AMC	AMC	±10.3%
4	M	$21.51	Today BMO ✓	BMO	reported
5	CPRT	$32.03	Sep 11 †	AMC	—
6	FIZZ	$30.54	Sep 11 †	AMC	—

ORCL / ADBE / RH all report after the close tonight — three genuine binaries on the same session. † radar date unverified. Earnings dates confirmed against company IR (Oracle investor page, RH press release).

⏰ Morning Window Plan (Today's Scalp Map)

Buy 9:30–9:40 · Default exit 10:00 · Extend to 10:30 ONLY on new session highs at 9:55 · 3-DTE picks = hard 10:00 exit · Marks auto-recorded 9:35 / 10:00 / 10:30

Ticker	Contract	Prem	Entry	Exit	TP	Stop
RIVN	17C 9/18	$0.27	9:35	10:00	+25%	-20%
SOFI	18C 9/18	$0.30	9:40	10:00	+25%	-20%

Delta-over-DTE: RIVN 17C Δ0.28 is light for a scalp — if you want more responsiveness, 16.5C (Δ0.39, $0.41) is the higher-delta alternative. Earnings binaries (ORCL/ADBE/RH) are not window plays — holding into the print is a separate overnight decision, and their calls don't fit budget anyway.

🏆 Top Pick Verdict

#1 RIVN $16.00

B — 74/100

🟢 🟢 BUY

17.0C 2026-09-18 · $0.27/share · $27 total · 8 DTE

Breakeven
$17.27

OTM
6.3%

Δ
0.28

IV (Ann, est.)
~52%

🚗 R2 Launch Narrative Bullish TIB3 signal (45% conf) + 2026 R2 ramp

Cat:15Bud:20R/R:13Tech:9Entry:17

📊 Live Tradier chain data — verify fill on Robinhood

The only clean, budget-fitting long call on the board with a forward catalyst. TIB3 flipped bullish on RIVN this morning (45% confidence) and the R2 launch narrative is the 2026 story — while the July capital-raise overhang is already priced. Deep liquid chain (29.5K OI on the 17C), tight 15% spread, $0.27 premium is a cheap 8-DTE ticket. Risk: RIVN is a structurally unprofitable EV name — this is a momentum/narrative scalp, not a fundamentals bet.

#2 SOFI $17.33

C — 53/100

🟡 WAIT

18.0C 2026-09-18 · $0.30/share · $30 total · 8 DTE

Breakeven
$18.30

OTM
3.9%

Δ
0.33

IV (Ann, est.)
~48%

📉 Dip-Buy (Analyst Initiation) Loop Capital Hold / $22 PT — mild overreaction

Cat:8Bud:20R/R:10Tech:5Entry:10

⚠ Downtrend — down 36% YTD, below 52-wk high by 46%

Loop Capital initiated at Hold with a $22 target (27% above spot) — the -4% reaction is a mild overreaction, and a $22 PT on a $17 stock is not a sell. Deep, liquid chain (17.5K OI on the 18C, 3% spread — best fills on the board). But the technical is ugly: a six-month downtrend, failed $20 breakouts, and no binary catalyst. This is a speculative bounce trade only — if you play it, size small and honor the 10:00 exit.

#3 M $21.51

D — 45/100

🔴 SKIP

22.5C 2026-09-18 · $0.53/share · $53 total · 8 DTE

Breakeven
$23.03

OTM
4.6%

Δ
0.35

IV (Ann, est.)
~45%

📅 Post-Earnings Reported BMO — catalyst already passed

Cat:4Bud:16R/R:7Tech:8Entry:10

⚠ Liquidity concern — 30% spread, OI 590

The binary catalyst (Q2 earnings) already fired this morning — there's no forward event to trade. Worse, post-earnings spreads have widened to 30%+ and open interest is thin (590). You'd be paying up for a chain that's already de-risked the event. Skip — no edge left.

📋 Full Scoreboard

#	Ticker	Price	Strike	Expiry	Est. Prem	Score	Grade	Catalyst	Verdict
1	RIVN	$16.00	17C	Sep 18	$0.27	74	B	R2 Launch	🟢 BUY
2	SOFI	$17.33	18C	Sep 18	$0.30	53	C	Dip-Buy	🟡 WAIT
3	M	$21.51	22.5C	Sep 18	$0.53	45	D	Post-Earnings	🔴 SKIP
4	ORCL	$161.63	165C	Sep 11	$8.23	49	D	Earnings AMC	🔴 SKIP
5	ADBE	$254.86	—	—	$5+	44	D	Earnings AMC	🔴 SKIP

⚠ Premiums are live Tradier chain midpoints (09:01 ET). Verify on Robinhood before execution. ORCL/ADBE rows: near-ATM calls run $5–$11/share — 3–7x the $150 budget. The catalyst is real; the budget wall is real.

💰 What $250/Trade Would Unlock

Ticker	Contract	Prem	Δ	Breakeven	Note
AMBA	80C 9/18	$2.15	0.28	$82.15	Fits $250, not $150 — but gapped +7%, chase risk
ORCL	170/172.5C debit spread	$0.80	—	$170.80	2.1:1 defined-risk earnings play

Honest read: raising the cap to $250 doesn't unlock the earnings binaries (ORCL/ADBE/RH near-ATM calls are $5–$11). The real lever for tonight's catalysts is a debit spread — ORCL 170/172.5C costs $0.80, pays $1.70 max (2.1:1) if ORCL clears $172.50 (+6.7%) on earnings. That's the only sane way to touch a $161 pre-earnings name inside a small account.

🔎 Top 3 Deep Dives

#1 — RIVN 17C 9/18 ($0.27) · The Narrative Scalp

Setup: Rivian flipped bullish on TIB3 this morning (45% confidence, 6 items). The R2 launch is the 2026 catalyst and the stock has absorbed the July $1.5B capital-raise dilution — $16 is a stabilization level, not freefall. Clean 8-DTE ticket at $0.27 with deep liquidity (29.5K OI).

Trade: 17C 9/18 — breakeven $17.27 (+6.3%), Δ0.28. Max loss $27. If RIVN reclaims $17.50–$18 on R2/news momentum, the call goes 2–4x. Higher-delta alternative: 16.5C (Δ0.39, $0.41).

Risk: RIVN is unprofitable and dilution-prone. No binary event — this is momentum only. Honor the 10:00 window exit unless it prints new highs on volume at 9:55.

#2 — SOFI 18C 9/18 ($0.30) · The Bounce Lottery

Setup: Loop Capital initiated Hold with a $22 target — the -4% gap is an overreaction to a non-event. Best fills on the entire board (3% spread, 17.5K OI).

Trade: 18C 9/18 — breakeven $18.30 (+3.9%), Δ0.33. Max loss $30. A mean-reversion bounce to $18+ in the morning rush pays ~1.5–2x.

Risk: Six-month downtrend, down 36% YTD. No catalyst to reverse it. This is a knife-catch — only play if it holds $17.25 into 9:40.

#3 — The Earnings That Don't Fit (ORCL / ADBE / RH)

Setup: Three large-caps report after the close tonight — ORCL (±10–13% move, EPS $1.74 est.), ADBE (±8.1%), RH (±10.3%). This is the strongest earnings cluster in weeks.

Trade: None at $150 — ORCL 165C is $8.23, ADBE near-ATM is $5+, RH similar. The only budget-fitting expression is the ORCL 170/172.5C debit spread ($0.80 debit, 2.1:1) in the $250 tier.

Risk: These are true binaries — post-earnings IV crush wipes long calls even on a correct directional read. If you want exposure, a defined-risk spread is the only honest structure at this account size.

✅ Constraint Check

Constraint	Limit	Status
Max premium	$1.50/share	✅ RIVN $0.27 · SOFI $0.30
Max strike	$262.50	✅ all picks under
Min OI / volume	500 / 100	✅ RIVN 29.5K · SOFI 17.5K
Max spread	15% mid	✅ RIVN 15% · SOFI 3% (M fails → skipped)

Disclaimer: This report is for informational and decision-support purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, and should not be used as the sole basis for any investment decision. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Verify all premiums, strikes, and expirations live on Robinhood before executing any trade. Estimated IV values are approximations derived from live chain midpoints.

Data sources: TIB3 ticker intelligence (10289), Tradier direct API, pre-market gap scanner (07:30 ET). Generated 09:05 ET.