👁 Argus Morning Brief

Monday, October 26, 2026 · Pre-Market Edition

Live Tradier marks · Argus pipeline

📒 The Ledger

Yesterday's picks, marked against the contract — not the stock.

SOFI 14C 11-20	C+	$1.45 → —	… —
AAL 12C 11-20	C+	$1.04 → —	… —
CCL 26.5C 10-30	C+	$1.08 → —	… —
RIVN 12.5C 12-18	C	$1.05 → —	… —
DKNG 22.5C 11-20	F	$0.96 → —	… —
SPCX 175C 11-20	F	$1.42 → —	… —

GRADE TRACK RECORD B: 1/11 (-60.0% avg) B-: 18/50 (-15.3% avg) C+: 27/91 (-19.4% avg) C: 12/34 (-15.4% avg) F: 41/170 (-3.0% avg)

📊 Market Snapshot

FCEL

$11.11

-69.2%

MXL

$63.46

-50.4%

MBLY

$6.54

-32.4%

VSAT

$61.47

-31.6%

TODAY'S TOP PICK

SOFI 14C Nov 20

🟡 WAIT — 60/100 · Grade C+

Live: $1.33 × $1.38  ·  Max loss $138.00  ·  BE $15.38  ·  POP 34.7%  ·  IVR 75%

-4.2% otm with 25 dte. max loss 138 fits budget. breakeven needs 0.3x atr-achievable move. model pop 35%. strongest component: theta burden.

📋 Full Scoreboard

#	TICKER	STRIKE	EXPIRY	LIVE MARK	SCORE	GRADE	WHY	VERDICT
1	SOFI	14C	Nov 20	$1.35	60	C+	Theta Burden	🟡 WAIT
2	AAL	11C	Nov 20	$1.33	60	C+	Iv Quality	🟡 WAIT
3	CCL	26C	Nov 20	$1.25	58	C+	Iv Quality	🟡 WAIT
4	RIVN	12.5C	Dec 18	$0.94	51	C	Theta Burden	🟡 WAIT
5	DKNG	20C	Oct 30	$1.27	50	F	Iv Quality	🔴 SKIP
6	SPCX	200C	Dec 18	$1.26	44	F	Iv Quality	🔴 SKIP
7	RVI	30C	Dec 18	$0.47	41	F	Iv Quality	🔴 SKIP

IVR values marked (proxy) are realized-vol percentiles — real IV rank activates automatically once 45 days of IV snapshots accumulate.

🔍 Deep Dives

#1 — SOFI 14C Nov 20

Setup: Momentum 0.24, IVR 75%, expected move ±$2.39 by expiry.

Trade: -4.2% otm with 25 dte. max loss 138 fits budget. breakeven needs 0.3x atr-achievable move. model pop 35%. strongest component: theta burden.

Risk: Theta and IV are live risks; spread 4% at entry. Max loss capped at $138.

Rules passed: all 9 active rules · ruleset 5d971cf9e506

#2 — AAL 11C Nov 20

Setup: 📰 News-discovered — impact-2 · American Airlines Earnings Were Good. Why the Stock Never St. Momentum 0.24, IVR 48% (proxy), expected move ±$1.47 by expiry.

Trade: -9.2% otm with 25 dte. max loss 139 fits budget. breakeven needs 0.1x atr-achievable move. model pop 40%. strongest component: iv quality.

Risk: Theta and IV are live risks; spread 8% at entry. Max loss capped at $139.

Rules passed: all 9 active rules · ruleset 5d971cf9e506

#3 — CCL 26C Nov 20

Setup: 📰 News-discovered — impact-2 · SEABOURN INTRODUCES A CULINARY PHILOSOPHY BRINGING DESTINATI. Momentum 0.37, IVR 52% (proxy), expected move ±$2.93 by expiry.

Trade: -0.4% otm with 25 dte. max loss 132 fits budget. breakeven needs 0.2x atr-achievable move. model pop 32%. strongest component: iv quality.

Risk: Theta and IV are live risks; spread 11% at entry. Max loss capped at $132.

Rules passed: all 9 active rules · ruleset 5d971cf9e506

✅ Constraint Check

Max budget	$150/contract	✅ top pick $138
Max strike	$262.50	✅ all picks under
DTE window	2–60d	✅ enforced in pipeline

All marks are live Tradier bid/ask at generation time — not estimates. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss. This is analysis, not financial advice. Paper context.

Argus · ruleset 5d971cf9e506 · generated 2026-10-26 09:00 ET · every pick above was written to the ledger before you read this