👁 Argus Morning Brief

Thursday, September 10, 2026 · Pre-Market Edition

Live Tradier marks · Argus pipeline

📒 The Ledger

Yesterday's picks, marked against the contract — not the stock.

SOFI 17C 09-18	B-	$1.24 → —	… —
RIVN 16C 09-18	C+	$0.71 → —	… —
RVI 30C 09-18	F	$1.10 → —	… —
NVDA 260C 10-16	F	$1.48 → —	… —
SPCX 200C 10-16	F	$1.31 → —	… —
INTC 110C 09-14	F	$1.45 → —	… —
AMZN 262.5C 09-11	F	$1.21 → —	… —

GRADE TRACK RECORD B: 1/10 (-56.0% avg) B-: 13/29 (+0.6% avg) C+: 10/24 (+19.1% avg) C: 3/7 (+37.5% avg) F: 16/102 (-27.7% avg)

📊 Market Snapshot

FCEL

$16.57

-54.0%

MXL

$71.51

-44.1%

AMBA

$68.80

-19.8%

VSAT

$72.36

-19.4%

TODAY'S TOP PICK

SOFI 17C Sep 18

🟡 WAIT — 64/100 · Grade C+

Live: $0.71 × $0.74  ·  Max loss $74.00  ·  BE $17.74  ·  POP 35.8%  ·  IVR 24%

-1.9% otm with 8 dte. max loss 74 fits budget. breakeven needs 0.2x atr-achievable move. model pop 36%. strongest component: iv quality.

📋 Full Scoreboard

#	TICKER	STRIKE	EXPIRY	LIVE MARK	SCORE	GRADE	WHY	VERDICT
1	SOFI	17C	Sep 18	$0.72	64	C+	Iv Quality	🟡 WAIT
2	RIVN	15C	Sep 18	$1.20	63	C+	Iv Quality	🟡 WAIT
3	NVDA	260C	Oct 16	$1.19	44	F	Iv Quality	🔴 SKIP
4	INTC	145C	Oct 16	$1.27	43	F	Catalyst	🔴 SKIP
5	SPCX	190C	Oct 16	$1.17	41	F	Iv Quality	🔴 SKIP
6	AMZN	260C	Sep 14	$0.77	35	F	Iv Quality	🔴 SKIP
7	QCOM	190C	Sep 18	$1.42	34	F	Iv Quality	🔴 SKIP

IVR values marked (proxy) are realized-vol percentiles — real IV rank activates automatically once 45 days of IV snapshots accumulate.

🔍 Deep Dives

#1 — SOFI 17C Sep 18

Setup: Momentum 0.44, IVR 24%, expected move ±$1.23 by expiry.

Trade: -1.9% otm with 8 dte. max loss 74 fits budget. breakeven needs 0.2x atr-achievable move. model pop 36%. strongest component: iv quality.

Risk: Theta and IV are live risks; spread 4% at entry. Max loss capped at $74.

Rules passed: all 9 active rules · ruleset 5d971cf9e506

#2 — RIVN 15C Sep 18

Setup: Momentum 0.47, IVR 36%, expected move ±$1.33 by expiry.

Trade: -6.3% otm with 8 dte. max loss 128 fits budget. breakeven needs 0.2x atr-achievable move. model pop 40%. strongest component: iv quality.

Risk: Theta and IV are live risks; spread 13% at entry. Max loss capped at $128.

Rules passed: all 9 active rules · ruleset 5d971cf9e506

#3 — NVDA 260C Oct 16

Setup: Momentum 0.67, IVR 22%, expected move ±$24.63 by expiry.

Trade: 16.2% otm with 36 dte. max loss 121 fits budget. breakeven needs 1.0x atr-achievable move. model pop 7%. strongest component: iv quality.

Risk: Theta and IV are live risks; spread 3% at entry. Max loss capped at $121.

Rules passed: all 9 active rules · ruleset 5d971cf9e506

✅ Constraint Check

Max budget	$150/contract	✅ top pick $74
Max strike	$262.50	✅ all picks under
DTE window	2–60d	✅ enforced in pipeline

All marks are live Tradier bid/ask at generation time — not estimates. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss. This is analysis, not financial advice. Paper context.

Argus · ruleset 5d971cf9e506 · generated 2026-09-10 09:00 ET · every pick above was written to the ledger before you read this